All roads to the Lodge run through Victoria. The state, once dismissed as the Massachusetts of Australia due to its progressive proclivity, presents a path both Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton must tread very carefully. Both sides know that Victoria, in particular Melbourne, is key.
Pollsters agree. Parties note that many of the seats are being fought on very different boundaries to the last poll. The ALP, as the incumbent at federal and state level, is There are 38 seats up for grabs — one fewer than in 2022, after Higgins was abolished.
Labor holds 24 seats, the Liberals seven, their Coalition partners the Nationals three, "teal" independents have two, the Greens one and independent Helen Haines is the MP for Indi. The Liberals come off a low base after voters abandoned it under Scott Morrison, while Labor is suffering from voter disappointment, anger at the state government's performance and general anti-government sentiment after the pandemic hit Victoria the hardest. Even the most optimistic of Labor figures predict the party will lose a couple of seats in Victoria, while on a bad day for the ALP it could lose up to eight.
So what seats are the ones to watch? Across suburban Melbourne, these seats are Labor's to lose The first three to keep an eye on are seats considered to be most vulnerable for the federal government: Aston, Chisholm and McEwen. Labor made history when it shocked all the experts to win at the 2023 April Fool's Day b.
